Comments on: Predicting the Future Returns of the S&P 500 http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/ A personal finance blog dedicated to discussing such topics as budgeting, asset allocation, 401K, IRA, cash flow, insurance, financial planning, portfolio management, and other areas in personal finance. Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:56:44 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Mighty Bargain Hunter » Roundup for week of 18 March 2007 http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-91842 Mighty Bargain Hunter » Roundup for week of 18 March 2007 Tue, 27 Mar 2007 02:16:20 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-91842 [...] All Financial Matters has several formulas for predicting future returns of the S&P 500. [...] [...] All Financial Matters has several formulas for predicting future returns of the S&P 500. [...]

]]> By: fivecentnickel.com http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-91207 fivecentnickel.com Sun, 25 Mar 2007 03:16:14 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-91207 <strong>Weekly Roundup - 03/23/07</strong> Here’s a quick look at some of the articles that caught my eye over the past week… Jim writes about the possibility that no-free balance transfers from Citi might be coming to an end. So… There’s not better time to apply for a 0% bala... Weekly Roundup – 03/23/07

Here’s a quick look at some of the articles that caught my eye over the past week…

Jim writes about the possibility that no-free balance transfers from Citi might be coming to an end. So… There’s not better time to apply for a 0% bala…

]]> By: Money Articles for the Week of March 24, 2007 » Silicon Valley Blog About Money http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-90783 Money Articles for the Week of March 24, 2007 » Silicon Valley Blog About Money Sat, 24 Mar 2007 14:48:00 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-90783 [...] All Financial Matters has Predicting the Future Returns of the S & P 500. Here’s a post for you math nuts out there as it’s packed with interesting formulas. Plus, check out JLP’s new furniture. He’s busy doing some house projects these days. [...] [...] All Financial Matters has Predicting the Future Returns of the S & P 500. Here’s a post for you math nuts out there as it’s packed with interesting formulas. Plus, check out JLP’s new furniture. He’s busy doing some house projects these days. [...]

]]> By: Anonymous http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-89492 Anonymous Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:39:19 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-89492 tinyhands, At least with the first method, you can use objective numbers based on past performance. Obviously, you have to determine which past period(s) are comparable enough to be used. That's where the personal judgement comes in. I agree that an unweighted average of the three methods looks to me like so much hand-waving. tinyhands,

At least with the first method, you can use objective numbers based on past performance. Obviously, you have to determine which past period(s) are comparable enough to be used. That’s where the personal judgement comes in. I agree that an unweighted average of the three methods looks to me like so much hand-waving.

]]> By: JLP http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-89485 JLP Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:13:41 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-89485 <em>"I’m curious as to what justification he uses to average the three models against each other though."</em> He doesn't say. All he says is that he averages the three estimates. I think this is his way of admitting that all three formulas are legitimate and taking an average of the three is a way of finding a consensus. “I’m curious as to what justification he uses to average the three models against each other though.”

He doesn’t say. All he says is that he averages the three estimates. I think this is his way of admitting that all three formulas are legitimate and taking an average of the three is a way of finding a consensus.

]]> By: tinyhands http://allfinancialmatters.com/2007/03/20/predicting-the-future-returns-of-the-sp-500/comment-page-1/#comment-89483 tinyhands Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:04:26 +0000 http://allfinancialmatters.com/?p=1665#comment-89483 The thing about forecasting is being able to justify your numbers. You can still be wrong, but if you can make a case for <i>why</i> you're wrong you might salvage your job. Each of the three models has room for personal judgement, so there's no answer that is always right. I'm curious as to what justification he uses to average the three models against each other though. The thing about forecasting is being able to justify your numbers. You can still be wrong, but if you can make a case for why you’re wrong you might salvage your job. Each of the three models has room for personal judgement, so there’s no answer that is always right.

I’m curious as to what justification he uses to average the three models against each other though.

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