« Question of the Day: 55 MPH | Main | Advice For Your Kids – How Would You Answer This Question? »
The Power of Suggestion
By JLP | July 16, 2008
President Bush mentions the need for offshore drilling and the price of oil reacts:
Sure, the drop in prices is probably temporary but I like what I’m seeing so far.
According to the article I read in yesterday’s Houston Chronicle, President Bush’s lifting of the ban on drilling is largely symbolic because congress has its own moratoriums on drilling. But, it does put the pressure on congress to do something about high oil prices.
Will it work? I have no idea. I really wish we had a plan! A real, comprehensive energy plan. Anyone want to head that up?
Topics: Oil | 24 Comments »
July 16th, 2008 at 11:06 am
That’s what I’m saying! If only we had an energy plan. It’s everyone’s fault that we don’t. Until now, energy has been cheap, so no one cared.
I think it’s great that Bush lifted the ban. Place the burden on congress and force them to figure this all out.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Tom,
I think we’ll find out just how much the Democrats care for poor people. I think it’s crazy that people are struggling to make ends meet and the Democrats are pandering to environmentalists. It’s crazy.
I’m not saying drilling is the answer but I am saying that we should be open to doing whatever is necessary to get energy costs down. If we can do that, the prices of everything else will drop too!
July 16th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Let’s not kid ourselves about the effect lifting the ban will have – it won’t give us more gas or cheaper gas, and as Bush just said, the effect is mainly psychological.
I intensely dislike making this a partisan issue because it’s not. We need to get serious about pumping more oil, and allowing some offshore drilling on a case-by-case, state-by-state basis. I think the states should have final approval because tourism and ecosystems could be effected, and that matters. But we also need to push for good alternative fuels.
I cannot for the life of me understand why we are not following in Brazil’s footsteps. They get 40% of their fuel from cellulose ethanol, and it only requires 2% of their crops!! Or algae!? Even cleaner and less expensive to process!
It won’t happen overnight, and this Administration is not going to develop an energy policy (let’s remember that Cheney met with Big Oil 5 times to develop our current energy policy – brilliant).
Changes are coming – we just need to get through this painful transition, but where’s that FF button when you need it!?
July 16th, 2008 at 11:36 am
DJD,
It shouldn’t be a partisan issue but it is. There has been little if any cooperation between the two parties.
I agree with you 150% that we should be investing in alternative energies like the ones you mention. I have blogged about algae in the past.
All of this is going to take money. Who has money? Big oil! That’s why Cheney met with big oil. You say you don’t want to make this a partisan issue and then you go and mention that little tidbit.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:54 am
How is it that removing the ban on drilling won’t give us more gas? It certainly will in the long-term. Will it be cheaper than if we keep the ban? Of course. It’s ludicrous to assert that just because we can’t use oil forever we should just suddenly stop now even though we’ve used maybe 1/3 of the Earth’s total supply.
And it’s not true that Brazil gets 40% of their fuel from cellulose ethanol. It’s not even economically viable now. Brazil actually makes sugar-cane ethanol. I do believe that we should import it from Brazil than growing our own wasteful corn ethanol.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Andy,
What are your thoughts on algae?
July 16th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
True, true – ya got me. However, not all Big Oil companies want to be anything but Big Oil, and we can’t count on them to make changes or commit their finances to anything but oil. Why would they want gas to cost less when their profits are astronomical?
The U.S. may curb its use, but demand is rising around the globe to counter that. BP states it is embracing the `beyond petroleum’ ideology, but not all of Big Oil will (we need only look at the Exxon-Rockefeller dispute for evidence of that).
I think the key is to have a multipronged attack on energy & fuel, and IMHO, the present Administration focuses too much on oil without an equal commitment to alternatives. ALternatives that would not only provide price relief, but new industries & jobs.
I’ve written my Congressional Reps and my Senators (I have homes in two states, so that’s a lot of writing!) – and they are all pushing for alternative energy development as part of the solution. More people need to write their Reps and Senators, it doesn’t take too many emails & letters to get their attention. I live in Oregon & Washington, and we care about keeping our green heritage. Yes, I’m one of those `environmentalists’ that doesn’t want to rape our ecosystem so we can have cheap gas, and I make no apology for it.
Like you, I’m hopeful we can break this gridlock and make progress!
July 16th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Some things:
1. High oil prices aren’t going away any time soon, for numerous reasons.
2. That said, any solution must involve increasing US sources of oil, at least in the near and intermediate term. Even if this doesn’t help hugely with oil prices, it will help hugely with balance of payments and the dollar, which is as big a problem, as well as national security questions.
3. In the near term, conservation is probably the only thing that can do much.
In the mid-term (5-10 years out), some alternate energy stuff will start coming online, new-tech cars will begin to appear in nontrivial numbers, and supply from drilling will begin to appear.
In the longer term (20+ years), we should be past oil in a big way, by replacing it with electricity and with other sources of hydrocarbons such as biodiesel, methanol, etc.
4. Four things I’d do immediately if I were God-Emperor of the Universe:
o Mandate flexfuel engines beginning with the 2011 model year. This will develop a car fleet that can use lots of different hydrocarbon sources like methanol, ethanol, biodiesel, etc.
o Allow drilling. Petroleum is still the cheapest source of hydrocarbons and will be for awhile.
o Allow building of nuclear plants. We’re going to need a lot more power generating capacity for numerous reasons as we move away from hydrocarbons to an ultimately all-electric economy.
o Get the country ready for a massive increase in electricity capacity as it will need to replace oil use fairly quickly. In the near term, this would include nuclear for baseload, wind, and spot solar for top-up load power.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
DJD,
I believe we should take care of the environment. But, I’m also a realist in that I know we must live off the land. Is the earth here to serve us or are we here to serve the earth?
This isn’t an all-or-nothing deal. We CAN use the earth’s resources without total destruction.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
The suggestion that Bush moved the price of oil by speaking is why our country can’t move forward. People are tied up in lip service, faith and fairly tales rather than reality.
The price is dropping because the reality that the world’s economies are slowing. Therefore, less demand for oil. OPEC realized this a while ago.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
I agree with much of what has been said. We need a comprehensive long term energy policy. Oil will probably not be replaced by a single technology. Nothing should be off the table-nuclear, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, ethanol, hydrogen etc. I am so tired of our leaders(?) passing on our problems to future generations just because they will require money and time to develop.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
JLP, I hear you – and in response, I say we can, but often we don’t. Just take a look at the mountain top mining for coal in the Appalachians for an example of this. And how about the recent revision of the fine against Exxon for the Exxon-Valdez debacle, which left the State of Alaska holding the tab for clean up.
You’ll have to forgive my cynicism on the issue, but we’ve all seen a lot of evidence that contradicts an assertion that we’re being responsible stewards when it comes to energy use. I hope we can seek & use energy more responsibly in the future, but we need to voice that desire to our elected officials on a regular basis. We need to put our money where our mouth is and be more willing conservationists.
I’m with Stephan & Foobarista, I’m tired of passing the buck. The time for change is now and we need more than just increased oil drilling. The definition of insanity is repeating the same behavior and expecting different results. As a fellow realist, I know that if all we do is drill for oil, we’ll never resolve the problem in the longterm as the population & demand increase. Our kids, and this planet that sustains us, deserve better from us.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/HowMuchOilItdTakeToBuyTheUS.aspx
Digest this! It makes me want to weep (if one can trust the estimated numbers)
P.S. BTW JLP, if one were to refer to the country’s Energy Plan, why wouldn’t one mention Dick Cheney’s name? After all, he is our VP–it’s not like DJD was picking names out of thin air for a partisan attack…As an aside, I am enjoying your selection of books. Thanks again!
July 17th, 2008 at 11:35 am
One other thing: don’t get hung up on oil conspiracy theories or “greedy money men”. The oil companies were just as greedy seven years ago when oil was hovering around $15/bbl as they are today.
The difference then was that China and India were not yet big oil importers, and the US had 10% less population.
The energy question won’t be answered with punitive taxes on “Big Oil”, Congresscritter “investigations”, or other grandstanding silliness. (Tax policy may be part of the mix, but not that way.)
July 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
How about the Pickens Plan? T. Boone Pickens, the ridiculously successful oilman, seems to have a decent plan to ween us off our dependence on foreign oil. I like what I’ve seen.
http://www.pickensplan.com/
July 17th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
I think most of the analysts have said that the jump in the market was due to the assumption that demand for petroleum would go down because of the slowing economy. So, the oil prices fell and stocks went up as a result. The Bush announcement about offshore drilling was mostly a footnote (if that) in the articles I read.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:01 am
Well from recent comments from Bush it would appear that they are now seriously considering getting oil from the vast oil shale reserves they have in the US.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
it’s really disturbing that the public debate(and especially the politics) are centered on alternatives vs. oil. America needs to do both. and ASAP!
bigger issue is that we spend 300billlion a year to fight terrorism ( spending more or less inspired) but at the same time provide over 500billion a year to the countries that nurture ( one way or the other) the ideology of the terrorists. we try to contain the ayatolahs of Iran but at the same time we have emboldened and strenghtened them by foolishly going into Iraq and we help them finance themselves and their nuclear ambitions by being short sighted about how dependent we are on oil.
we need more oil from non-Arab sources (better off from our country or our close alies – i.e. Canada) and we need more alternative energy ( including the NEGAWATTS of conserving by getting out of stupid wasteful SUV’s, thermoisolating our homes better, getting our heat and air conditioning from heat pumps, changing our cities and suburbs to me more compact, getting more public transport and rapid railways, recycling more. I live in Midwest after had lived in NJ and there is appalingly very little recycling. It’s also disturbing how much paper and plastic is wasted in packages of products that could be sold in smaller boxes, etc.
we have wasted energy and resources like there is no tommorow, we are getting more in debt to our enemies. I strongly believe in free markets but i also believe in the pigovian doctrine that we shpuld tax bad behavior. using energy and resources mindlessly is bad behavior 9 that’s why i think we should tax the gasoline if it would be to fall again below 3.50-4.00$ per gallon. this country needs a more rational way of dealing with all this before it will be too late. We’re still one of the brightest and best educated people in the world, if we will just apply ourselves more we will keep this country great for our children.
July 24th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
People forget that Clinton did something similar. He threatened to release oil from the Strategic Reserve and the price dropped a lot.
Unfortunately, some conservatives, including Bush, believe that encouraging or mandating people to conserve is somehow an infringement of people’s right to choose and interfering with the free market. Yeah, right. Most people are selfish and greedy. They don’t care about the future, only the now. The problem with oil is that it is a diminishing asset. The more you use now, the less you have for later. Peak oil theory aside, we are spending more time, effort and money looking for oil and pulling it out of places that used to be considered inaccessible or inefficient. So allowing fat cats to waste energy now means it will cost us that much more later.
December 3rd, 2009 at 5:46 am
Good article. Thank you.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:25 am
thanks for sharing a great info
January 15th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
great info ,thanks for sharing
March 16th, 2010 at 8:42 am
It’s hard to find knowledgeable people on this topic, but you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
June 10th, 2010 at 8:38 am
A good read, definitely worth a cut and paste. Thanks