8 thoughts on “Crude Oil’s Down Again!”

  1. A couple of weeks I predicted under 100 by the end of year and a settle below 75. I got heckeled of course by some old guys. I still believe that. I think it was all market manipulation. I don’t think its natural for commodities to go up that fast. Sure they give you some plausible sounding reason why. That is why I sold my gld @96 a share. At 200 a barrel alternatives make sense. I think our country uses gas because it’s the cheapest way right now. I want to sound real crazy and say 50 in one maybe two years. I expect to see a sell off next week. Maybe 100 by the end of the week.

  2. KC,

    I know what you mean. However, several commenters on previous posts have said that refiners were reluctant to raise gas prices even though oil was going up. Now they are reluctant to lower them because of their margins.

    I have no idea whether or not this is true. All I know is that the price seems to go up quickly but NEVER falls as quickly.

    In my part of the country, if we went solely by the percentage change in oil, our gas prices should be around $3.10—they’re $3.64 right now!

  3. You mean the world isn’t going to come to an end this year as the media led me to believe? Shoot, I wasted all that money stocking up on 100 pound bags of rice and building an underground bunker 🙁

  4. I feel like a tool…I filled up yesterday for the first time in awhile. I was driving down the road going “c’mon $3.99…$3.99….c’mon….YES!!! 3.97!”

    (The last time I filled up it was $4.38)

  5. Preston,

    It’s largely based on location (and local taxes). I know on our trips to Kansas that gas is always cheaper in Oklahoma than Texas, which would make sense since they have refineries in Oklahoma.

    It got very close to $4 a gallon here. My wife said she saw a few $4 places on her way to work.

  6. Oil won’t get to $75 for several reasons. One, a great deal of the oil we get from Canada, our second laregest importer, is from tar sands. It costs about $80 per barrel to pull that out. If oil approaches $100, this supply will be taken offline, which would increase costs.

    Second, the dollar won’t continue its appreciation. It had a nice bump recently which drove oil down fast. But, with enormous budget deficits, we will be lucky to keep this appreciation in the dollar.

    Third, world events will flare up. Already, Russia is on the verge of war. And, Iran shows no signs of slowing its nuclear program.

    Fourth, if oil drops any further, America will just resume its previous consumption levels. To date, our reduction is less than 5% from where it was last year.

    Finally, we are still consuming the full 85 billion barrels produced. If we fall to $75 a barrel, that means the world is in a drastic economic slowdown, which would be much worse than paying $4 a gallon for gas. The amount of wealth lost would be much greater than the amount spent on high priced gas.

  7. I am new to investing. So if you guys already know this don’t laugh. If you want to follow the shorts check Dug. If you want to follow the longs check Dig. Isn’t it ironic. I think the run up was a money making scam, then again I do tend to be conspiracy minded. Enjoy. I am trying to learn about investing and this year it feels like I am getting jumped in.

Comments are closed.