« Okay…Enough Bad Stuff…Here Are 10 Things That Are Going Right! | Main | How Each Stock Affects the Dow’s Performance »
Remember Mr. Roubini? Now He Says the Worst is Yet to Come!
By JLP | October 27, 2008
A couple of months ago I mentioned an interview with Nouriel Roubini, Economist and Professor at New York University. It turns out his assessment on the credit crisis was spot-on. Now he’s a busy man traveling all over the world, talking to people about crisis and what’s to be expected.
Guess what?
He fears the WORST is still to come! From the article:
What does Roubini think is going to happen next? Rather worryingly, in London last Thursday he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut—perhaps for as long as a week—in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.
That’s right, all the stuff we’ve already gone through is nothing compared to what we face in the near future. Is he right? Let’s hope not!
Topics: Miscellaneous | 15 Comments »
October 27th, 2008 at 10:41 am
The problem going forward will be investor confidence. Roubini was finally correct in his prediction but we don’t need anyone overselling his expertise in a way to suppress confidence among responsible investors.
October 27th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Just a curiosity point…How many persons in the past have we heard from who did make an accurate prediction about a big financial event and then fade from view? That is, no one paid attention to them beforehand but after their moment of fame they became mere mortals again and their predictions weren’t so stellar.
Does the name Elaine Garzarelli ring any bells? She accurately predicted the “1987 Crash” as an analyst at Shearson Lehman. That made her an instant media star and “guru.” What has followed over the last 20 years hasn’t been so dramatic and she’s rarely mentioned anymore — except in reference to the ‘87 crash.
Should we put our trust in the predictive powers of Roubini to get it right again? What are the odds that he’ll be “spot-on” with his current assessment? Time will tell.
October 27th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Frankly, I think he is right on. The long-established rules no longer apply. I wonder if there even will be a recovery. If we think that is likely, it would seem an excellent gamble to purchase homes, when homes are priced below their actual value. For so long they were priced way above their value, and what has happened was inevitable.
New rules need to be written. And there is potential for great profit for those who are prepared right now.
October 27th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Peter Schiff, who is much more reliable, is now predicting an inflationary depression.
October 27th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Anyone who thinks the worst is over is kidding themselves. This thing is just getting started.
This is not about a stock market crash, or a recession or even depression. This is a complete shift in the structure of the economy – that’s gotta take time.
October 27th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I agree with Steve Braun- one good prediction is one thing, a series of them is another. It would also be interesting to know how Mr. Roubini is invested. If he truly believes his own predictions he really should be shorting stocks like crazy.
I don’t claim to know what the market will do it may go up, down, sideways in the short term. However, I’m pretty certain it will go up in the long term- say over the next 10 years. I won’t be trying to time the market, but I will keep investing, and if I get some really great sale prices on stocks great!
-Rick Francis
October 27th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
I saw another report today (I forget where) that predicted 100+ hedge funds would soon collapse.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Ron,
I could see how that could be a real possibility—especially if the market keeps falling.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
It does seem like what is going on is across the board selling. Everything except the shorts are getting hammered. Somebody is trying to raise cash. Then the savers who have money in a 401k and have lost alot want out. I think it is just snowballing. I think we might have another year of this. Age seems to play a factor on how people look at this. The older people at my work have all gotten out. It’s the great depression all over again. The younger people are saying this is a great buying opp. We are increasing our contributions.
A year ago it looked there wasnt going to be alot of upside going forward so this market might help those of use still contributing.
This guy seems like he knows what he is talking about but I am reallly not a big believer in the “This time is different argument.”
If you think he is right check out proshares and short.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Mr. Roubini has been mentioned a number of times on Gary North’s site, so that’s where I’ve seen him. He’s spot-on.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Yea, Martin Weiss from http://www.moneyandmarkets.com is predicting the same thing to happen. He says the Dow Jones is going to hit a bottom at 7,200
October 27th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Guys – enough with the doom, gloom and panic. People are always saying that the financial rules are being re-written. Guess what, they never are.
Back in the dotcom bubble people were talking about how business had new economics; back in the real estate bubble people were saying how real estate investments were a sure fire investment and the rules of economics no longer apply; now people are worried that the rules no longer apply on the way down.
In fact, I am predicting that in the near future someone will predict the DOW will fall below zero.
Seriously. Enough with the panic. Yeah, this downturn sucks. Yeah we’re all losing a bundle. So what?! Economics are still economics, and people are still people. The same rules apply now and will continue to apply in the future.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Could be thousands of hedge funds go belly up?
http://snurl.com/4rwzn [www_telegraph_co_uk]
October 28th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
I am only interested to know if Nostradamus will be correct.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I am more interested in whether the Mayan Calendar is right.