The 50 Worst Months in S&P History and What Followed

October 31, 2008

This is a follow-up to my last post.

Below is a listing of the 50 Worst Months in the S&P history along with the 1-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 5-year returns that followed:

The 50 Worst Months in S&P History and What Followed 1 Month, 6 Months, 1 Year, and 5 Years After.

Nineteen times (40% of the time) the one year returns following the bad month were negative. It’s also interesting to note that the 5-Year total returns were negative following 7 of the 50 worst months (not including inflation) or 16% of the time.

Remember: Stocks for the LONG RUN!

7 responses to The 50 Worst Months in S&P History and What Followed

  1. Wonderful chart.

    “Remember: Stocks for the LONG RUN!”
    I’ll sign that statement. πŸ™‚

  2. Thanks for adding the 5-year column. That really does help emphasize the long-term aspect. Now, I guess we can add Oct 08 at -16.56% if I calculated it right.

    (BTW, you’ve duplicated April ’37)

  3. Taking 50 months is less useful than looking at 10 or 20 months. The sample size may be too large given the size of the whole population. However the 5 year column shows that in the long run, investing in stocks is a good idea – even if you tend to forget this during the pain of a massively down month….

  4. That is a great list, quite useful for future estimation.

  5. JLP, do the 50 *best* months in S&P history, and what happened after. Please please please please please. πŸ™‚

  6. I would still point out that, “long term” is way more than just five years later. So, while I like the premise of the post, I hope people don’t get scared off if they expected to see 100% rosy returns for the years following these calamitous drops.

  7. “Nineteen times (40% of the time) the one year returns following the bad month were negative. It’s also interesting to note that the 5-Year total returns were negative following 7 of the 50 worst months (not including inflation) or 16% of the time.”

    So all this means absolutely nothing. Thank you.