By JLP | January 7, 2009
I received the following email the other day from an AFM reader (summarized from several emails):
Greetings! Yours is an awesome website, and it has proved to be very helpful ministry to me as of late. I had a quick question for you.
My wife and I are in our 20′s. We have no kids, but I have recently curiously contemplated maybe buying a new, bigger, more expensive home in order to take advantage of the current real estate situation. The house is in the best school district in the state, and nicely situated close enough to some nice restaurants and shops, etc.
In 2006, when the neighborhood broke ground (it’s in the Birmingham, Alabama area), the houses were listed for pre-sale at $689,000 or so. I know for a fact that one of the residents in that neighborhood with a similar house to the one that I want paid taxes on $707,000 last time around. This particular house has been listed for 13 months, with the price slowly falling. The home currently says $569,000. I asked the sales agent / realtor about her coming down and she told me that they are very negotiable, of course. I can get in the low 500′s, I’m pretty sure. It is a very impressive home.
The down payment of $450,000 is nearly all of my net worth. It is a large inheritance, and it will cover about 80% of the purchase price of the home. Besides that, I would have my cars, possessions and a $15 or $20 thousand savings portfolio. I would, however, be debt free. So, I guess a major part of my question is, is a luxury home a good investment vehicle in these troubled times? I’d look to sell in 10 or 15 years, hopefully making a good bit of money on the house.
I do not have a retirement account or anything along those lines. My “career” will officially start when I finish law school and pass the bar, one year from now.
My question: Is it time to move, or wait for the market to drop even more, or stay put? If I don’t buy this house, the money will probably just be sitting in a CD of some sort.
All the best,
Wow! Lots of things to think about. Unlike lots of people, I look at a house as an investment—afterall, it IS an asset. So, I would look at this from an investing point of view. You have to decide for yourself whether or not you want to allocate your entire net worth (at least right now it would be your entire net worth) to one asset. Lack of diversification is something to think about.
It could be years before housing prices start to recover so I wouldn’t plan on any more than a 3% to 3.5% appreciation rate on the house over the next five to ten years. Based on that, you could expect the house to be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $700,000 – $740,000 in ten years. Keep in mind that there are no guarantees that housing prices will move up. If things don’t turn around in this country soon, we could be facing a long-term recession. That would not help housing prices.
Personally, I don’t think the worst is over for housing prices. There are more foreclosures looming out there and they are only going to put downward pressure on housing prices. Sure, some areas will be hit harder than others but how bad it will get is anybody’s guess.
In addition to the purchase price, you’ll also have to pay more property taxes and the upkeep on a larger home will naturally be higher. Will you be able to afford those expenses? I know in my town, a $500,000 house probably has a $12,000 per year tax bill.
If it were my money, I think I would hold off on buying the house. I would keep an eye on housing prices and if you think they are turning around, you could jump then. You have one huge advantage over most people in that you have a hunk of cash sitting around waiting to be used. Other people don’t have that luxury.
Since you have plans for using the money for the purchase of a house, I would keep it fairly liquid. Shop around for CD rates but be careful.
That’s my opinion. You can take it for what it’s worth.
Now I’d like to open it up to AFM readers and see what they think.