Jeffrey Hirsch: Dow 38,000 by 2025

September 28, 2010

Fox Business just ran a story about Jeff Hirsh’s prediction that the Dow will begin a superboom in 2017 that will send it to 38,000 by 2025. Hirsh says that between now and 2017, we will see a sideways market.

To get to that number, the Dow would have to have an average rate of return of 8.73% over the next 15 years (I did some rounding). If you use 2017 as your starting point and today’s market level (since Hirsch is predicting a sideways market between now and 2017), you’re looking at a 14.97% rate of return.

Hirsch says that to get from here to there, we’re going to need some sort of technological advancement to get companies hiring, which will create the boom.

When you think about it, an 8.73% annual rate of return isn’t unheard of. It’s just that it’s hard to map out the road from here to there given our current economic situation.

I’ll post a link when one becomes available.

Thoughts? Does the Dow at 38,000 by 2025 seem like a stretch to you?

8 responses to Jeffrey Hirsch: Dow 38,000 by 2025

  1. I think trying to project that far into the future is virtually impossible this day in age. With technology, economics, and world events changing so much more rapidly these days, we have no idea what’s going to happen. It would be nice to think that my retirement savings could go up that much or more but I just think it’s too hard to predict. Hey, the author has gotten some great publicity though as I’ve seen this mentioned multiple times, so if he’s hoping to make a name for himself, mission accomplished!

  2. The market went sideways from 1966 (Dow~1000 or less) to 1982. From 1982 through 2000 DOW went to ~12,000. That’s a zero return from 66-82, a 15% return from 82-2000 and a 7.6% return from 66-2000. These secular bull and bear markets have always been with us. It would certainly consistent with past patterns for the Dow to still be at 12,00 though 2017 and then grow at 15% for the next 8 years.

  3. Who is Jeffrey Hirsch?? Robert Prechter says it is going to 1,000. Those two guys should arm wrestle.

  4. Didn’t someone write a book predicting
    DOW 40,000 by 2010? (or earlier)
    written in 1999 or 2000, at the peak of the
    internet bubble?
    This sounds a bit more realistic….

  5. I didn’t double check your math, but a “sideways market” typically means in real dollar terms, net of inflation. It doesn’t mean the market won’t go up at all.

    Thus, the market would be higher in 2017 than now, meaning a fair bit lower rate of return between 2017 & 2025.

    Personally, I won’t make any guesses as to what the DOW does, but I do agree that we’re in a range boung or “sideways” market & will continue to be for the next 7-10 years, at which point we’ll experience some incredible growth.

  6. I’m still waiting on James Glassman’s call of Dow 36,000 back in the middle of the bubble. I think it is entirely possible for the Dow to get in the 30,000’s by 2025 if government reverses course and becomes a lot more business friendly.

  7. Keep drinking the koolaid…..the Fed will have to eventually raise rates & with the amount of debt we have all tax revenues will go to pay the interest alone.

    That and the fact the offshoring of jobs (except for $9/ hr) thus destroying the middle class. Of course let us not forget that we still have no energy policy to reduce our dependence on oil from countries that want to destroy us.

    I would say that the odds of the DOW hitting 36,000 by 2025 are probably less than me hitting Lotto for any sizable sum.

  8. Cool! 2025 is the year I plan to retire early!