Fox Business just ran a story about Jeff Hirsh’s prediction that the Dow will begin a superboom in 2017 that will send it to 38,000 by 2025. Hirsh says that between now and 2017, we will see a sideways market.
To get to that number, the Dow would have to have an average rate of return of 8.73% over the next 15 years (I did some rounding). If you use 2017 as your starting point and today’s market level (since Hirsch is predicting a sideways market between now and 2017), you’re looking at a 14.97% rate of return.
Hirsch says that to get from here to there, we’re going to need some sort of technological advancement to get companies hiring, which will create the boom.
When you think about it, an 8.73% annual rate of return isn’t unheard of. It’s just that it’s hard to map out the road from here to there given our current economic situation.
I’ll post a link when one becomes available.
Thoughts? Does the Dow at 38,000 by 2025 seem like a stretch to you?