Search


Subscribe to AFM


Subscribe to AllFinancialMatters
by Email

All Financial Matters

Promote Your Page Too

The American's Creed

Site Sponsors

Books I Recommend


AFM in the Media


Money Magazine May 2008

Real Simple March 2008

Blogroll (Daily Reads)

« | Main | »

Question of the Day: GOP Nomination for 2012

By JLP | May 24, 2011

Let’s see if we can discuss this like adults.

Here is today’s question of the day:

Who do you think will get the GOP nomination for the 2012 Presidential election?

Personally, I think Herman Cain stands a chance at getting the nomination. I don’t know a whole lot about Cain but what I know so far, I like. He has a certain charisma about him. Seems like a decent and likeable guy.

One thing I don’t like about him is I read somewhere yesterday that he said he doesn’t get any respect from the GOP. Sounded as if he was whining and whining isn’t a good trait for a leader.

The rest of the field, I’m disappointed in because I don’t think any of them are electable.

What are your thoughts?

One other thing:

Do you think President Obama will go unchallenged by the Democrats? I think he probably will.

Topics: Politics, Question of the Day | 50 Comments »


50 Responses to “Question of the Day: GOP Nomination for 2012”

  1. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 11:55 am

    The Republicans are in the position that the Democrats were in 2008. They could have easily defeated Bush but all they could come up with was John Kerry. It’s the same for the Republicans with Obama.

    The Republican field is really weak. Romney will be the Republican version of Kerry. They will not want him but he will be the best of a bad bunch. They will have to hold their nose and vote for him and watch him lose by 2 to 3 percentage points.

    Cain has no chance whatsoever.

  2. Money Beagle Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 11:56 am

    I think a lot of the bigger names that think they might have a shot are waiting until 2016. Huckabee already ran a campaign in 2008 and probably has one more shot at getting donors and backing before the party writes him off. Daniels might have the pizazz to rally the entire party and get tons of money, but with both of those guys, they know that Obama is going to be tough to beat barring some huge economic meltdown in the next eighteen months.

  3. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:05 pm

    Money Beagle,

    Huckabee has announced that he’s not running in 2012 and I don’t think Daniels is either.

    Retired,

    I wouldn’t count out Cain. He’s not on the radar kind of like Obama wasn’t on the radar.

  4. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:12 pm

    Herman Cain say hes not gettin respect in GOP field. its obvious just print out a pic of the entire congress print a democrat portrait then print a republican one compare the two tell me what you see cause evidently Mr. Cain has not noticed the contrast or diversity that one of them parties have plus he lacks an idea we dont need to be anti Obama we need a serious idea to challenge him on so far Obama seems to have the solutions.

  5. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    Cain is no Obama. He’s also in the wrong party for a black man. His chance is less than zero.

  6. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    GOP has become so camera shy ppl dont know them, its as if they are afraid to be publicly addressed on todays current issues.You have to get your message out there but nowadays most GOP pres. candidate interviews go bust due to lack of a viable plan/idea for this nation.Remember John McCain didnt have an idea/plan so Obama categorized him w/Bush easy win plus he articulated his plans for america.

  7. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    “Cain is no Obama.”

    No kidding. He’s 1000 times better…lol.

  8. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:21 pm

    Not on the stage. There is a lot you can say about Obama. But there probably isn’t anyone in the world than can top him at public speaking in a political campaign (and probably not too many in all of history).

  9. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

    When the far right wing was tapped in 2010 for GOP energy just to win the house,thats when extremism was given a green light instead of a thumbs down.Smart republicans got unseated and replaced by these anti Obama ppl with no ideas they just want to see him gone even if they dont have a plan. NO real GOP member would let a conversation about cutting medicare even come up thats how much af a career killer that issue is but GOP leadership today cant even control the extremes that frankly this nation is tired of in stead of fixing a problem they did a good job of painting themselves in a corner

  10. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

    Whomever the man is that have to address the GOP caucus is going to have to say all those extreme things those ppl want to hear just to get a nomination. Then the trouble comes because that candidate will have to eplain to the rest of the nation his/her extreme views which scares independents away. It didnt help that Donald Trump bellowed out falsehoods which poisoned the well even more thats how he shot to the top of that field in less than 30 days just to duck out to make his tv millions leaving behind all that venom for the next man

  11. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:29 pm

    Retired,

    Lots of people have said that but I just don’t see it. Obama just isn’t that great of a speaker in my opinion. He’s NOTHING compared to Reagan.

    Have you heard Cain speak? I think he’s just warming up.

  12. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:30 pm

    If Cain was considering a run he should have atleast challenged Obama from the democrat side but nooo he goes stand in front of crowds of ppl who dont care for his kind smart move save your money. Matter of fact imiss Godfathers good pizzas open up more restaurants!It will create jobs!

  13. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    You’ve got a bias against him which doesn’t allow you to think straight. If you can’t see his talents on the stage, you are blind.

  14. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    Mitt Romney the guy whos hangin around what is his platform/idea? A politician such as Obama took his very own healthcare idea and got it passed.Obamacare which was given that moniker for bad purpose but now sounds good Romney has to explain why he did the same exact thing as govenor. Funny he thought of the plan first then Obama takes it and make it your worst weapon

  15. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:38 pm

    Is it possible to just forfeit the presidential election?Obama always go and find a republican idea present it to the ppl get it passed then they run away from their own idea.Thats possibly the reason they lackin in the idea category

  16. Milo Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:41 pm

    I’m still waiting for a candidate, and no it’s not Michelle. Pawlenty out of the current bunch may be electable, see the WSJ article.

  17. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:43 pm

    Republicans would be lookin to call timeout if this were a sport.They know they are totally unprepared for the national elections after they packed the house with extremist with no political experience no thought for compromise or an agenda of things to do for this nation. Look at every state GOP governs the agenda is not jobs but social issues gays abortion gun thing which dont matter when you sit down at the table to figure out your monthly bills

  18. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    Retired,

    If I’m biased against him, then you’re biased for him.

    I’m not saying he doesn’t have talent. I just can’t stand the way he talks (he sounds like he’s talking down to people). He’s got about as much talent as President Bush had.

  19. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:47 pm

    Republicans get in office just to fight those same old issues of yesteryear i suppose this is how healthcare will play out.The supreme court ruled almost 30yrs ago on a womens right to choose which makes it legal but they somehow want to change that 30yr old law what about todays current issues?Medicare democrat program as you can see they fight that too!What has a GOP legislative body accomplished for the ppl of this nation.

  20. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:47 pm

    I really wish Sarah Palin would get in just for entertainment purposes. At this point, I think she would win the nomination. It would be close at the very least.

    I’m also hoping Rudy will make another run. No one wants to be president worse than Rudy.

  21. Retired at 40 Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    I’m not even voting for him. I’m just saying he’s briliant on the stage. The fact that a black man became president pretty much says it all. The guy wowed everyone when he came out in 2008. I knew then he would be president but I didn’t think it would be until 2016.

    Unfortunately, public speaking is about all he is good for. He can’t stand up to the Republicans when the going gets tough.

  22. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:51 pm

    Has there ever been a GOP administration that passed legislation to help this nation? Somehow we are always left with debt and less jobs on the other hand democrat administrations create jobs even leave surplus which republicans soon turn into deficits.There hasnt been a time when a dem pres took a GOP surplus (which never exist)and turned it into a deficit but GOP had a field day with the Clinton surplus

  23. jason brown Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 12:56 pm

    i see we have a Reaganite in the house the pres. who did what? What did this great Reagan accomplish as POTUS?He left us in triple the debt found us in some conservative which by the way means you count your expenses.Did he get anything done legislatively.Every major piece of legislation that helps ordinary ppl was created by democrats which explain why GOP seeks to cut medicare soc sec.

  24. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 1:00 pm

    Jason,

    What did Clinton do? Nothing. What did Carter do? Nothing.

    What has Obama done? Nothing. His health care legislation will not help. Heck, if the legislation was that great, why would so many companies be lining up to get exemptions?

  25. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    And Jason,

    Social security NEEDS to be cut.

  26. Steve Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    JLP – you should have really kept this blog about money. i just can’t visit this site anymore.

  27. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 1:14 pm

    Sorry, Steve. I write what I want.

  28. Jack Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    Politics is ALL about money, Steve. How much is the government going to take, and to whom are they going to give it? Those are the issues of politics today.

  29. Russ Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 2:16 pm

    The GOP field is definitely weak and it isn’t looking good.

    I think Cain will do pretty well but he is definitely a long shot as he doesn’t have the backing of some of the name candidates. He is the only one who excites me. If he plays his cards right, he may also be able to attract a decent size of the black vote, particularly the middle class blacks.

    Much like Trump, his frank and to the point style resonates with people. Everyone is tired of all the political double talk.

    I am also tired of these career politicians. The GOP is not going to win against Obama running another boring old white guy. They need someone with some kind of swag (even if he is white… a ala Chris Christie). They also need to cut loose the Christian right. Nothing wrong with being religious and socially conservative, but I just don’t think that is how you are going to win over the moderates which is what is going to be required to win.

    There are a lot of folks who are fiscally conservative but not much into the holy roller movement and get frightened by the intelligent design talk and bible thumpin.

    Although a very successful businessman, the business he was in (Bain Capital) is of the very high elite management consulting/private equity world that 99.9% of the populace can’t relate to versus Cain running a Pizza Chain everyone has heard of. Of course, if they knew Romney’s business background, they would accuse him of being Wall Street insider which fits well with the Republican stereotype (all hile ignoring the Goldman ties to Obama).

  30. Eugene Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 4:47 pm

    Have to agree with Steve, JLP. I am independent and voted for Bush41, Dole, and Bush43 but you are coming off as a knee-jerk conservative when you bash his public speaking or his lack of accomplishments (Osama bin Laden? Obamacare, TARP, extending the Bush tax cuts — you may not like what he’s done, but they are accomplishments.). Obama’s speaking style may not personally appeal to you, but as another poster commented, as the first black President, he must be doing something right when it comes to running a campaign.

    What did Clinton do? He balanced the budget and eventually ran a surplus, for one thing. I strongly dislike the man on a personal level, but you know, in retrospect, I think he may have been a damn good President.

    Carter was before my time, but everyone seems to say he was a good man but not a good President.

    Anyway, if you want your commenters to debate like an adult, “[cain]’s 1000 times better … lol” is hardly an adult argument. Try responding with facts “Cain was CEO of Godfather’s pizza and generated XXX of profits” and positions “Cain supports the Ryan plan” instead of vague opinions and you might get some adult commentary.

  31. BG Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    Meet the new guy, same as the old guy. There isn’t much difference between Democrats and Republicans now-a-days, especially when it comes to spending and government bloat.

  32. Matt Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    JLP: You are sheer crazytown if you think Herman Cain stands a snowball’s chance in hell. Mitt Romney is your 2012 Republican nominee. Get in line now for your Obama inauguration tickets.

  33. Stacey Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 5:43 pm

    @ Eugene #30, I, too, don’t think he is a great public speaker. And no, it’s not a knee-jerk reaction on my part, but my own evaluation of the man’s talents. Is he a better speaker than George Bush? Of course! Is he better than Clinton–hell no!

    And for the record, I’ve voted for both Dems and Repubs thru my 28 years’ of voting, so it is not a partisan comment on my part.

    As for Obama’s achievements, I would hardly attribute the extension of the Bush tax cuts to him. His hand was forced on that one. He wasn’t promoting it himself. Recall the very targeted “$250K + income earners” from his campaign speeches, etc when discussing raising taxes. He had no intention of cutting taxes.

    TARP-inherited from Bush

    Healthcare reform-good idea in theory, unless you’re about to be whacked w/the 3.8% surcharge, then hard to be a fan…

    Killing Osama–I will give points to Obama for having the balls to see it thru.

  34. JLP Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 6:02 pm

    Matt,

    Did anyone see Obama getting the nomination 19 months before the 2008 election? I don’t think they did. I guess what I’m saying is anything can happen. A long shot? Sure. A snowball’s chance in hell? I don’t think so.

    Eugene,

    Thanks for your comment. My comment about Obama’s speaking ability was not knee-jerk. My “Cain’s 1000 x better” comment was knee-jerk. Sorry about that.

    Obama talks down to people. That’s not a good leader.

    As far as Obama getting Osama…

    What did Obama do besides carry over what Bush was doing? I was also under the impression that the Navy Seals did the killling. Sure, Obama gave the “order” but what else could he do? So…I’ll give him kudos for being the president at the time Osama was killed but that’s as far as that goes.

    Health care? If you call a plan that upwards of 70% of Americans didn’t want, a success, then sure…it was a success. The number of companies lining up to get exemptions tell me different.

    Clinton did what he had to do after the Republicans took over in 1995. See: Federal Receipts, Outlays, Surplus, Deficit, and Debt.

  35. Matt Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 6:20 pm

    JLP: Seriously, guy, I think Steve was right. You carry a lot more credit when you stick to personal finance or economics. A LOT of people saw Obama from way out – he was utterly electrifying at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. You can rationalize things however you want about Obama and Clinton, but here’s the reality: there’s no one right now that’s going to beat Obama. When bin Laden was killed, Obama got 4 more years. Is that rational? No. But neither is the American electorate. Romney will be the nominee, and he’s just not different enough from a reasonably popular incumbent. Obama 53, Romney 47.

  36. Eugene Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 8:27 pm

    Stacey & JLP —

    Good comments. Let me address.

    1) TARP. True, this was started by Bush. But Obama could have easily scrapped it and done something else, he had plenty of political capital. He stayed the course and like it or not, it’s an achievement of his (and Bush).

    2) Osama. We will never truly know who can take more credit. Although it’s possible that the Bush administration may not have been focused on getting Obama (I recall Bush downplaying that), I am willing give some credit to the Bush Administration. But one cannot say that Obama did nothing. At the very least, we know that he gave the order to go in without Palestinian approval and we got our man.

    3) Health care reform — regardless of whether it’s a good idea or a bad idea, it’s an accomplishment. When people look back on the first two years and say “what did Obama accomplish?”, ‘Obamacare’ will be on the list (next to Osama).

    Time will tell whether it’s good or bad, but he’s not been a do-nothing president. In contrast, I voted for Bush based on his Social Security reform platform and was bitterly disappointed that he could not reform it in his 8 years. In that respect, he failed me.

    About Obama getting the Dem nomination 19mo in advance — he was not the favorite (that was Hillary) in May 07 but he was the #2 on Intrade, the online political futures market. Here is a post from May 2007 that shows the odds at the time:
    http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/archive/index.php/t-108688.html.

    As you can see, Obama was being traded at 21% to win at that point. To compare, Cain right now is at 5% to win the GOP nomination. The two are not comparable.

  37. Eugene Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 8:31 pm

    To clarify, the archive post I referenced was Obama at 21% to WIN THE PRESIDENCY (19 months in advance). I couldn’t find a record of the market for Obama to WIN THE NOMINATION, but seeing as how the democrats in the presidency market added up to around 60%, Obama was probably trading in the 33% range in the nomination market at that time.

    Cain is at 1.5% to win the Presidency right now.

  38. Eugene Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 8:39 pm

    OK, I should read a little more. In the link I gave, further down in the thread, someone posted the NOMINATION markets. Obama was trading at 31.0-31.4 on May 4th, 2007.

  39. Jack Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 9:24 pm

    Do you know why 0bama will not release his medical records?

    Because he had never even run a fever.

  40. Matt Says:
    May 24th, 2011 at 9:44 pm

    Aaaaand Jack introduces the bad political jokes (with a zero for O! ZIIIIIING!). I guess this was to be expected. I’m counting down to the first references to “DUMBocrats” and “RePUKElicans.” Congrats, JLP: you’re now running a Youtube comments section.

  41. Jack Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 7:35 am

    N0 sense 0f hum0r.

  42. BG Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 9:37 am

    I second Eugene #37. There is a free market for people to make (and lose) real money by answering these questions.

    Obama has a 62% chance of winning in 2012.

    Mitt Romney has a 28% chance of getting the GOP nomination.

    Tim Pawlenty has a 25% chance of getting the GOP nomination.

    Herman Cain has a 5% chance of getting the GOP nomination.

    Source: http://www.intratrade.com

  43. JLP Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 11:11 am

    We shall see, BG.

  44. Eugene Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 12:17 pm

    I think you mean intrade.com. intratrade.com looks like a bad site.

    Futures markets are an excellent way to leverage the “wisdom of crowds” effect because it forces people to put their money where their mouth is. If sufficiently liquid, they have been shown to have a high degree of accuracy. Intrade has been around for at least 7 years (I remember trading contracts on Bush/Kerry) so they have a sizeable userbase. JLP, if you truly believe Cain and Obama are similar in their recognition at this point, you have a clear buy on Cain futures all the way up to 31. You can even sell before maturity so you should buy if you believe Cain’s stock will go up as more voters learn about him.

  45. Beeg Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    @Eugene “What did Clinton do? He balanced the budget and eventually ran a surplus, for one thing.”

    How did he balance the budget? By counting “off federal budget” surplus toward the on budget for the fed govt. It was Enron on a massive scale. If you remove the Soc Sec surplus back then, it would have been deficit spending. In the entire 200+ years of our country there has only been one year where we haven’t run a deficit (in the mid 1830s).

    Now for the general thread…
    We shouldn’t be blaming Obama or Bush (completely) or even democrat/GOP…it’s the system. What has really changed in the last 20 yrs? It’s just back and forth. Since 2000…
    Under Bush
    +Went to war w/ Iraq and Afgan
    +Cut Taxes, Raised Spending, Grew Big Govt. – federal debt went from $5T to $10T
    +Passed Rx Drug Plan (more entitlement)
    +Passed Farm Aid bill (same same)
    +Passed No Child Left Behind (stupid)
    +Terrible Fiscal Policy aka Bernanke and Greenspan

    What has Obama done in about 3 yrs…
    +Still at war w/ Iraq and Afgan
    +Still massive spending – govt debt will be $20T by end of Obama 2nd term
    +Passed Obama Care
    +Same Sec of Defense, same Fed Chairman

    What has changed? The federal government will continue to kick the can as long as the FED and China will buy our debt.

    What’s gonna change in 5 yrs after Obama’s 2nd term, nothing, just more debt as long as there is a market for the US debt, the problem will continue.

    My prediction, unless the economy is going sour (towards double dip), Obama wins 2nd term. Senate will tighten up a little for GOP and we will basically have what we had after 1996 election.

  46. BG Says:
    May 25th, 2011 at 1:54 pm

    Eugene said: “I think you mean intrade.com. intratrade.com looks like a bad site.”

    Yep, you are right, thanks. Maybe JLP can fixed the URL I typo’d.

  47. John Says:
    May 26th, 2011 at 5:36 am

    I think a big problem the GOP has is the Tea Party. If the GOP candidate does not pass their litmus test, they will not be behind that person and may even run their own candidate. This could further weaken an already weak GOP candidate.

  48. Leland Says:
    May 26th, 2011 at 12:53 pm

    First, I don’t like to get on posters for grammar, but Jason Brown, you gotta throw some commas in there man. I can barely follow what you’re saying

    Second, JLP, I think you’re right, Cain is the only Republican out there who has any integrity left. Plus he is spouting the same old mantra Republicans have been pushing for the last 30 years. That will excite resonate with the conservatives.

    Third, I wish a real progressive would run against Obama. Someone like Feingold. So Obama would have to abandon his 1980’s Republican policies and come fight for his base. Keep him honest.

  49. anna Says:
    May 29th, 2011 at 1:48 am

    I don’t know who will get the GOP nod, but I like Huntsman. I do not think the DNC (at a high level) will field anyone against Obama.

  50. Adriana from Florida Says:
    July 21st, 2011 at 12:07 am

    Ron Paul is the only hope for America now. He isn’t corrupt, actually cares about the welfare of the people, lives within our means to ensure continuity, has wisdom from being around for so long, and so much more. Look up videos of him on YouTube and compare what he says to the other Republican candidates. He makes the most sense. He is unwavering just like the grand ‘ol USA flag should be. Vote Ron Paul!

    (And I think Obama will be unchallenged in 2012 by other Democrats. Anyone dreaming of running against him is insane–they don’t stand a chance without mass use of hypnosis drugs.)

Comments