Archives For S&P 500 Index

Yesterday’s 1.58% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the 6th worst first day of the year in the history of the Dow (going back to 1929).

If history is our guide, we’re in for a ho-hum year. I looked at the 20 worst first trading days for the DJIA and then looked at the return for that year. Please note that I used price returns for the DJIA and also included total returns for the S&P 500 because I don’t have total returns for the DJIA going back that far. Because I used two different indexes you’ll see instances where the total return is less than the price return.

20 Worst DJIA Starts

By far the worst performing asset class for 2015 followed by AFM was the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which was down nearly 15%. Based on the numbers I found this morning, it’s a very volatile index:

MSCI Emerging Markets Index TR

Yet, even with all that volatility, it still performed a lot better than the S&P 500 over the same period. NOTE: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) began trading on 4/14/2003. Since that day, it has had a 10.51% average annual rate of return vs. 8.95% for the iShares S&P 500 Index ETF (IVV).

Here is the up-to-date report through 2015 (click on the graphic to download the PDF).

Total Returns for Various Indexes - Dec 2015

This is the last installment of S&P 500 Index Rolling Returns series.

The average 30-year rolling total return for the S&P 500 starting with 1926, is 2,478% or 11.21% annualized (geometric mean). There were several 30-year periods that had annual returns between 8% and 10%. Also, these numbers are not adjusted for the CPI, which would have a significant negative impact on the end results (perhaps another AFM series?).

Here are links to the other posts in this series:
S&P 500 Annual Returns 1926 – November 2015
S&P 500 5-Year Rolling Total Returns
S&P 500 10-Year Rolling Total Returns
S&P 500 20-Year Rolling Total Returns

Here are the 20-Year Rolling Total Returns for the S&P 500. Once again, these returns are not adjusted for the CPI, but DO include dividends.

Please notice that not one 20-year period experienced a negative return. Long time horizon is important.

I’m going to post 30-year rolling returns and then do an analysis of 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year rolling returns. Stay tuned.

Click here if for some reason you can’t see the spreadsheet.

I haven’t posted this information in awhile. I’m trying something new with this post by actually embedding an Excel Spreadsheet into this blog post. We’ll see how it works. I’m a tad excited about the possibilities of this.

The cool thing about it for AFM readers (you) is that you can copy and paste this information or you might even be able to save the spreadsheet for future use.

NOTE: One thing I noticed is there appears to be a lag in the loading of the spreadsheet, which is a tad annoying.

NOTE 2: I also noticed that the spreadsheet shows up in Safari on my iPad, but not my iPhone.

Click here if for for some reason you can’t see the spreadsheet.

I haven’t posted an update to the indexes I follow in quite awhile. Here is the latest installment (click on the graphic to download the PDF):

Total Returns for Various Indexes - Nov 2015

As you can see, for all the excitement 2015 has brought, the returns for indexes have been rather boring. The S&P 500 is only up 3.01% so far this year. If this holds, 2015 will be the worst performance for the year since 2011’s 2.11% (please note that these are total returns, which include dividends).

As you can tell from the following chart, the S&P 500 Index has not had a very good 2015. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (includes dividends) is up 1.95% YTD.

SandP 500 YTD 07-10-2015

The trendline is not very steep.

It will be interesting to see what the rest of 2015 has in store. I’m not expecting much. At this point, I don’t really care. We’re still saving for retirement and up markets at this point, don’t help us much.