As you can tell from the following chart, the S&P 500 Index has not had a very good 2015. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (includes dividends) is up 1.95% YTD.
The trendline is not very steep.
It will be interesting to see what the rest of 2015 has in store. I’m not expecting much. At this point, I don’t really care. We’re still saving for retirement and up markets at this point, don’t help us much.
It’s pretty sad that we are closing out the first quarter of 2015 and I’m just now getting around to posting 2014’s returns. I’ll do better from here on out.
Bottom line: 2014 was a very rough year for oil.
It’s been a couple of years since I updated the AFM S&P 500 20-Year Rolling Period Total Return graphic. Here it is:
The last several 20-year holding periods have not been very nice to stock holders.
S&P 500 Rolling Period Returns (Through 2014) (Adjusted CPI)
Here is a handy dandy PDF of the annual total net returns for the S&P 500 from 1926-2014.
If you have any questions, let me know.
Up next will be an update to the 20-year rolling period returns. Fun stuff.
The S&P 500 Index was down 3.46% in January. There’s a saying that goes something like “As goes January…”
Well, based on history, that’s not necessarily true. Take a look at the following two graphics. The first one is all the returns (these are total returns) for the month of January listed in order from worst to best. The other column shows the total return for the remainder of that year (February – December). The second graphic summarizes those results, looking only at the Januaries with negative returns.
Of the 33 Januaries with a negative return, 18 of them were followed by a positive return for the remainder of the year. Interestingly, of the 56 Januaries with a positive return, only 11 of them had a negative return for the February – December that followed.
Basically, January’s return doesn’t mean too much when it’s negative&151;at least as far as I have looked at it. I’m sure the results hinge more on where the January return is in a market cycle (not good for January 2014 if you look at 2013’s amazing year).
Anyway, I post the info and you form your own opinions.
What a year.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 29.65%
• The S&P 500 Index was up 32.39%
• The S&P MidCap 400 Index was up 33.50%
• The S&P SmallCap 600 was 41.31%
Of the ten indexes I keep track of here at AFM, 7 were up. Of the three that were down, Gold was by far the worst, losing 28.24% for the year.
The S&P 500’s 2013 return was its best since 1997 (it ranks 14th in the 88 years that I have data for).
You can view the full report (along with the numbers for 2011 and 2012) by clicking on the following graphic.
August was a rough month. See below…