It’s pretty sad that we are closing out the first quarter of 2015 and I’m just now getting around to posting 2014’s returns. I’ll do better from here on out.
Bottom line: 2014 was a very rough year for oil.
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It’s been a couple of years since I updated the AFM S&P 500 20-Year Rolling Period Total Return graphic. Here it is:
The last several 20-year holding periods have not been very nice to stock holders.
The S&P 500 Index was down 3.46% in January. There’s a saying that goes something like “As goes January…”
Well, based on history, that’s not necessarily true. Take a look at the following two graphics. The first one is all the returns (these are total returns) for the month of January listed in order from worst to best. The other column shows the total return for the remainder of that year (February – December). The second graphic summarizes those results, looking only at the Januaries with negative returns.
Of the 33 Januaries with a negative return, 18 of them were followed by a positive return for the remainder of the year. Interestingly, of the 56 Januaries with a positive return, only 11 of them had a negative return for the February – December that followed.
Basically, January’s return doesn’t mean too much when it’s negative&151;at least as far as I have looked at it. I’m sure the results hinge more on where the January return is in a market cycle (not good for January 2014 if you look at 2013’s amazing year).
Anyway, I post the info and you form your own opinions.
What a year.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 29.65%
• The S&P 500 Index was up 32.39%
• The S&P MidCap 400 Index was up 33.50%
• The S&P SmallCap 600 was 41.31%
Of the ten indexes I keep track of here at AFM, 7 were up. Of the three that were down, Gold was by far the worst, losing 28.24% for the year.
The S&P 500’s 2013 return was its best since 1997 (it ranks 14th in the 88 years that I have data for).
You can view the full report (along with the numbers for 2011 and 2012) by clicking on the following graphic.
It’s September, folks.
Did you know…
September is the ONLY month with an average NEGATIVE total return since 1926?
It’s true. The average total return for the month of September is -.67%. Of the 87 Septembers I have data for, 42 of them were negative and 45 were positive.
I found this interesting and decided to investigate a little more. I looked at the January-August YTD total returns for all years and then see what happened in the following September. The findings, which you can see in the chart below (click on it to see a larger version), were interesting.
This year, the S&P is up 16.15% YTD through August. Of the 11 times the S&P has had a return in that range, it averaged a 1.04% in the following September. We shall see what that means (if it means anything at all) for this September.
One thing I found interesting was when the S&P had a 20% to 25% YTD total return. Notice that it happened 12 times. Ten of those times were followed with a positive September return (an average of 2.24%, which is very high).
Let me clear: this is an exercise in fun. I’m not sure how useful this information is real life.