It’s September, folks.
Did you know…
September is the ONLY month with an average NEGATIVE total return since 1926?
It’s true. The average total return for the month of September is -.67%. Of the 87 Septembers I have data for, 42 of them were negative and 45 were positive.
I found this interesting and decided to investigate a little more. I looked at the January-August YTD total returns for all years and then see what happened in the following September. The findings, which you can see in the chart below (click on it to see a larger version), were interesting.
This year, the S&P is up 16.15% YTD through August. Of the 11 times the S&P has had a return in that range, it averaged a 1.04% in the following September. We shall see what that means (if it means anything at all) for this September.
One thing I found interesting was when the S&P had a 20% to 25% YTD total return. Notice that it happened 12 times. Ten of those times were followed with a positive September return (an average of 2.24%, which is very high).
Let me clear: this is an exercise in fun. I’m not sure how useful this information is real life.